Governor's race poll

Less than two weeks from election day, KATU has just released a poll (PDF in link) that shows Ron Saxton holding a 3 point lead over Kevin Mannix in the Republican gubernatorial primary, with Jason Atkinson 11 points behind the front-runner.

The poll, done by respected Portland firm Davis Hibbits & Midghall, Inc., shows Saxton at 26 percent, Mannix at 23 percent and Jason Atkinson at 15 percent. It still shows 35 percent of likely Republican voters are undecided, with 4 percent leaning toward Saxton, 3 percent toward Atkinson and 1 percent toward Mannix.

Tim Hibbits of the polling firm told KATU:

Jason Atkinson is on the verge of making this a three-way race. . . . he has been moving up in the polls, so you cannot dismiss him as a possible upset winner. Again, I want to emphasize it's a longshot, but . . . any of those three gentlemen can still win.

When pollsters asked for an overall impression of the candidates, 44 percent had a "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable" impression of Saxton, compared to 47 percent for Mannix and 22 percent for Atkinson. However, almost one out of every four voters had a "somewhat unfavorable" or "very unfavorable" impression of Mannix, compared to 13 percent for Saxton and 4 percent for Atkinson.

One in four listed Saxton as "neutral," while Mannix and Atkinson each had 18 percent in that category.

The biggest challenge for Atkinson right now is his lack of name familiarity. Fifty-five percent of those polled were not familiar with Atkinson, which mirrors a SurveyUSA poll that showed 57 percent name unfamiliarity for Atkinson. (Note, however, that SurveyUSA also showed 10 percent favorable and 15 percent unfavorable for Atkinson, much different than the Hibbits numbers.)

One interesting thing about this poll is how the Oregonian (a partner with KATU in commissioning the poll) listed the results. It said the race is "way too close to call," but went on:

The poll shows Saxton at 31 percent in favor or leaning towards him, 2002 primary winner Kevin Mannix at 24 percent in favor or leaning, and Sen. Jason Atkinson at 18 percent in favor or leaning.

So in order to create the appearance of a bigger lead for Saxton (7 percent over Mannix vs. just 3 percent), the Oregonian combines the numbers for those in favor and those leaning toward each candidate. This seems a bit of a stretch to me.

Also interesting is how Davis Hibbits did in the 2002 primary. The final poll showed

• Mannix: 32 percent
• Saxton: 29 percent
• Jack Roberts: 19 percent
• Undecided/other: 20 percent.

The final vote was:

• Mannix: 36 percent
• Roberts: 29 percent
• Saxton: 28 percent
• Other: 7 percent

What do we learn from this? Voters had made up their minds about Saxton, but Mannix picked up another 4 percent, and Roberts surged into second with an extra 10 points. The KATU reporter, Melica Johnson, quoted Hibbits as saying Saxton and Mannix need to be wary of Atkinson:

Hibbits says negative ads by outside parties bashing Saxton and Mannix could lead undecided Republicans to that third choice.

With his limited funds, it will be difficult for Atkinson, but if those undecideds go to Atkinson as an alternative to the negativity between the front-runners, if Atkinson pulls a Roberts and picks up significant ground in the last two weeks (keep in mind that the undecided numbers are much higher this time, so there are more voters to pull from), it will be an interesting election night.