Upper Left Coast

Thoughts on politics, faith, sports and other random topics from a red state sympathizer in indigo-blue Portland, Oregon.

Friday, February 03, 2006

Rapidly shifting loyalties

Over the last 24 hours or so, I have been a bystander to a passionate debate about Jason Atkinson's position on immigration. Apparently, Jason stumbled over an answer on the Lars Larson show yesterday, and there were two results:
  1. At least one of Atkinson's opponents jumped on it by claiming Atkinson is "soft" on illegal immigration and their guy is the "only candidate who is willing to stand up to illegal aliens!"
  2. Several Atkinson supporters started rethinking their support for him based solely on this issue.
As someone who does not consider immigration to be the end-all and be-all issue in the Republican Party (or any party, for that matter), I'm having a hard time understanding the hubbub. (Please, before you lecture me on my naïvete -- I do understand why it's important, I just don't lose sleep over whether Politician A has proposed a program to give all immigrants a full-time job with no tax obligations, while Politician B plans to send them all home and build a 600-foot barbed wire fence around our country.)

However, I certainly do understand how one issue would make me rethink my support for a candidate. For me, that issue is abortion. If I learned today that Jason Atkinson secretly supported abortion on demand, that Planned Parenthood was one of his biggest supporters, and that he'd been making up a pro-life perspective to gain my vote, I would dismiss him as a candidate -- as soon as I verified the facts.

You see, Atkinson's track record doesn't support such a switch on abortion, so such a revelation would be worthy of investigation and explanation, but it would not mean I would immediately withdraw my support. Not until I verified the information. Not until I heard directly from the candidate. If I didn't hear from the candidate, that would be enough to drive me away.

Earlier, I said immigration isn't my most important issue, but it's not my intention to dismiss those who feel passionate about it. If someone told my I shouldn't put abortion so high on the priority list, I would probably dismiss them outright. I would just say this: just as Atkinson's record doesn't jive with a sudden pro-abortion position, it also doesn't support the idea that he would be soft on immigration. If he stumbled over an answer, he would be obligated to explain himself at the next opportunity. And anyone who held immigration as the top issue would certainly be within his or her rights to withdraw support if that explanation was insufficient.

But how to approach that discussion? Do you assume he's guilty of your worst fears, and it's up to him to convince you otherwise? I'd argue that such a perspective is unproductive. That perspective is for people who have a track record that differs with yours but who suddenly display a primary-season conversion (cough**ron saxton**cough), not a single mistake in the course of a long campaign.

Frankly, I'm surprised such a mistake hasn't happened prior to yesterday (and maybe it has, but I wasn't paying attention at the right time). These guys criss-cross the state, speaking several times a day, putting tens of thousands of miles on the campaign vehicles, sleeping too-few-hours in small hotels or crashing on a friend's couch. If I held that kind of schedule every day for six months, I'd be lucky to figure out my name, much less have a coherent answer to a question from a radio host who seems constantly to be looking for a fight.

But back to the question: how to approach this discussion? Rather than making demands, spreading rumors or immediately pulling my support, I would rather:
  • Contact the campaign directly and ask, respectfully, if he can clarify my concerns;
  • Hold off on snap judgments;
  • Listen with discretion to those who share my passion, but don't necessarily have all the facts.
Some people will read this and feel like I'm lecturing them, and I acknowledge that it does come across a bit in that way. I apologize to them -- I don't necessarily like to be lectured at, either. This is mostly my effort at venting some steam after a long day of listening to venting from all corners.

Final questions: if you're not going to support Jason Atkinson over this, what's the alternative? What happens when the next candidate disappoints you? What if that candidate wins, and then disappoints you?

To paraphrase someone I respect: I have offered my support for Jason Atkinson because I believe he is the best candidate of the three Republicans. Not just in pro-life issues, not just in immigration issues, but in several areas. That support came after thinking about it for a while (I think I was No. 16 on the Blogs for Jason list, which now has almost doubled). I didn't offer that support contingent on Jason running a perfect campaign. I didn't offer it contingent on my whims. I offered it for the long-term. And a misstep or two along the way is not reason to take my toys and go home.

Are you in it for the long-term?

14 Comments:

  • At 2/03/2006 12:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    That's one of the best responses I have heard. And Lars is rapidly pissing my respect for him down the drain.

     
  • At 2/03/2006 12:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    A decerning response to those who jump ship on a single comment, answer or rumor. Overall consistency is worth tracking and no one issue should automatically eliminate a candidate except for those issues that you are passonate about and even then it is prudent on your part to get to the truth of any statement before forming a conclusion.
    I am, however, passionate about the illegal immigration issue. I welcome immagrants who legally go through the process to enter our country. However, we are spending millions of tax dollars for the care, feeding and litigation of illegal immigrants every year. Is it any wonder we don't have the funds to expand our infastructure, improve our health care for seniors, and compete in the education process? I am a Republican Party member but I am ashamed of the way my party has tiptoed around this issue for so long that the situation is so out of control there doesn't seem to be a sensible way to bring it back into line.

     
  • At 2/04/2006 11:37 PM, Blogger Crackpot said…

    I respect your views regarding abortion, but I think it's a bogus comparison here. Abortion is legal. We can have an endless moral debate on the subject, discuss restrictions, funding, privacy, reproductive rights, personal responsibility, etc. The fact remains, it is the law of the land at this time.

    -Illegal immigration is a crime.
    -The rule of law still matters.
    -We must control our borders for our own security and prosperity.
    -Illegal aliens must be caught and deported.
    -Those who hire undocumented workers must face severe penalties.
    -Citizens who aid criminals must face criminal charges.
    -All levels of government must cease enabling those who enter illegally.

    Whew, glad I dont have any of those hot button issues.

     
  • At 2/05/2006 12:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Pity is its a card game and Jason got caught trying to earn the Agriculture Ace to play against Ron's Greater Portland Area Queen and Willamette Valley King.

    Poor Kevin looks to have a pair of 10's, curiously enough in the same suit and one seems to have come from an older deck.

     
  • At 2/05/2006 1:02 PM, Blogger I am Coyote said…

    Tony,
    Knock it off. You are running around the blogs now trying to put the same spin on that interview.

    Jason said what he believed and Lars said he didn't believe him. Lars was wrong.

    Kevin on the other hand is sending out letters to debtors asking them to forgive his previous campaign debts. THAT is not something I look for in a Governor. It is the political version of bankruptcy and it will come out in the general.

    So there... I said it... I have avoided it this long because I did not want to hurt Mannix so bad in the event he made it out of the primary. But since you are going to make a big deal about a freakin talk radio event I have to talk about actions that effect people.

    That is that Kevin can't pay his debts and he is asking people to suck it up and pay it for him. And not all these people are happy about it. Will they say anything? I doubt it... They are good soldiers... but they are not supporting Kevin this time around.

     
  • At 2/05/2006 1:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Tony states the real issue succinctly in his first three paragraphs. It wasn't what the Senator said, it was how he said it. He's going to have to go into overdrive to recover and if he screws up again in a similar fashion you might as well stick a fork in him.

     
  • At 2/05/2006 3:03 PM, Blogger I am Coyote said…

    Well I did not hear it. Consequetnly history is not made on talk radio shows.

    Bills are not moved through the legislature on talk radio shows.

    In Ron Saxton's case he has pro tax vote after pro tax vote to answer for. Those are actions that had REAL impact on people.

    Kevin Mannix owes people a lot of money and has been sending out letters asking them to forgive his massive campaign debt. Those are REAL actions that have REAL impact on people's lives. It also goes to how he may Govern. Perhaps through debt financing?

    So, for the couple million people that did NOT hear that particular program your sill issues are lost on them.

    I like to know WHAT someone said. Not HOW. If it came down to that then Ron would really have a problem with his particular voice. A topic that I have never brought up because it is something that he cannot help. It is also not indicative as to how he would govern.

    Atkinson's ACTIONS are.

    yip yip

     
  • At 2/05/2006 9:48 PM, Blogger Ken said…

    Crackpot: The legality of abortion or immigration has nothing to do with my point, which is that Jason Atkinson's track record does not support being "soft" on either issue.

    Tony: I realize you're coming to the discussion as a Mannix supporter, so I take that into account when you call Atkinson insolent, angry and hyperemotional. That said, I acknowledge he did not have a fantastic showing on Larson's show. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to consider this: Lars Larson pledged his support to Jason Atkinson based on a variety of factors, immigration included. When Lars became an attack dog on Jason, I think Jason felt like a friend suddenly stabbed him in the back, and he got caught by surprise. Part of that surprise came, I believe, because Lars was not just asking tough questions and demanding a factual answer, but accusing Atkinson of lying. You might expect that from your opposition, but not from a supposed ally. Again, did Jason handle it as well as he could have? No. Welcome to the world of politics, in which human beings are expected to be invincible but aren't. "Unhinged" is an unfair label that, again, I chalk up to your support for a different candidate. (I'm not aware of the Victoria Taft thing, so I can't comment on that.)

     
  • At 2/05/2006 10:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I keep seeing blog commenters accusing Jason of not showing up for radio shows. Funny though, I never seem to hear it on the radio shows themselves. Chalk that up to more blatant lying by the anti-Atkinson camp.

    Oh, and don't assume that an anti-Atkinson comment is necessarily from the camp of the candidate it plugs...

    If you see a post that says, in a nutshell, "Jason is a poo poo head, Saxton is God," then there is a very good chance that comment was made by a supporter of Kevin Mannix, or even Ted Kulongoski.

    Such messages are so blatantly hack jobs, that they make the person they are supposed to be endorsing look bad. Guess what--if it makes a candidate look bad, it probably came from his opposition!

    Mannix is desperate. He still hasn't raised enough campaign funds, despite campaigning for the last TEN YEARS and having unlimited access to party funds, to get into the black for this race. Don't be shocked if his minions have been instructed to try to smear both Jason and Ron with a single post that never mentions Kevin.

    Likewise, the Blue Oregon kooks are always out in full force, trying to make all Republicans look bad. They are desperate to defend Teddy K, because they know he is vulnerable. If they are attacking both Jason and Ron with a bogus post, it means they are afraid that either Jason or Ron can beat Sleepy (and if it was them pulling the blog burst of "Jason Bad Ron Good" messages last week, it shows they don't view Mannix as a viable challenger either).

     
  • At 2/06/2006 12:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Tony (Andy, whoever you are...):

    Don't put words into my mouth. There is nothing I have said ANYWHERE that suggests Daniel is working for Blue Oregon. Your comment just shows what a hack you really are.

    On Thursday, an "anonymous" poster left a comment on every single blog in our network, saying essentially "Jason Bad, Saxton Awesome." The tone and language suggests it was either all one person, or people working off one script.

    I believe these posts came from someone with an interest in seeing both Jason and Ron lose this primary--it could have been a Mannix supporter, or it could have been a Kulongoski supporter. I can totally see a Blue Oregon supporter doing this to discredit multiple Republicans at the same time.

    Now tell me, how do you extrapolate from that a suggestion that Daniel is working for Blue Oregon?

    If you read my comments on Daniel's blog, you will see that I encourage Daniel. If you look at the Atkinson blogroll, which I maintain, you will see that I have kept Daniel on the blogroll AT HIS REQUEST while Daniel awaits a response from Jason.

    I expect a retraction and apology from you for this insulting behavior on your part.

     
  • At 2/06/2006 12:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    > And as far as the Victoria Taft thing, I am reporting what I saw on other blogs.

    Heresay evidence, not admissable...

    > That makes Jeff Kropf, Victoria Taft, and Lars Larson who have all had broken commitments from Atkinson.

    Allegedly broken, and besides, since when do 3 fringe talk radio show hosts get to dictate the schedule of a Senator and candidate? Jason has made it to every meeting he ever scheduled with me, and I'm a nobody. So from my personal experience, he is a man of his word who goes the extra mile to talk to real people.

     
  • At 2/11/2006 9:11 AM, Blogger I am Coyote said…

    Tony,
    You know darn good and well that whole talk radio dust up was really a tempest in a tea pot.

    Lars was out of control as he was with Goli Ameri.

    I was talking to an independant the other day and he thought that it was Lars that came off looking bad not Jason. He was not totally sold on Jason as of yet and that silly experience did not push him one way or the other.

    So the only ones that seem to have made a decision based on that episode are folks that were LOOKING for a reason to bail.

    He is back on track and hitting his stride. Evidence the Medford debate yesterday.

     
  • At 2/11/2006 8:54 PM, Blogger Ken said…

    Tony,

    It's been interesting to read your comments here, as well as at other sites, because I think you're trying to portray yourself as an undecided voter, when that depiction is a little suspect.

    I spent almost an hour today reading your blog, as well as browsing through Gully and Coyote's sites for your comments. I will give you credit for dismissing Saxton throughout that period. I will also note that you have not been all-out "negative" toward Atkinson. In many of your posts you call yourself “open-minded” about who you will support.

    For instance, back in October at Sailor’s site, you had a very even-handed discussion with Sailor, but even then you were dismissive of Atkinson’s statewide chances.

    You have also stated for quite a while that you “lean” toward Mannix. As early as the sixth post on your blog back in September, you were trumpeting Mannix's position on immigration. Your favorable comments about Mannix have continued throughout the last several months. If you believe Mannix's immigration position is superior to the others, that fine, but I frankly don't think there's a lot of difference in rhetoric among the three, so I'm not sure how much water that holds. Yes, Mannix came up with a nice proposal for the state GOP, but is that so surprising when he was the head of the party for three years? He has more access and more relationships with the party faithful than Saxton and Atkinson combined.

    You've been dismissing questions about Mannix's campaign debt as so much desperation on the part of his opponents. I get the feeling you choose not to examine the issue in as much depth as you devote toward appearances of impropriety on the part of other candidates. You have acknowledged that the Democrats will make it an issue, but you seem a little wrapped up in a pro-Mannix crusade and unwilling to admit it might be a problem. I will trust your word that the state GOP agreed beforehand to help the candidates with their debt, but it has the appearance of a problem because he was the chairman and he got a decent chunk of the cash.

    There’s also another problem: the fact that he’s asking people to forgive his remaining debt tells me two things: his attitude toward the rank and file (which you have said are his biggest supporters) comes across as dismissive; and his inability to retire debt on his own before trying for statewide office for a fourth time sounds like a candidate who has reached the political end of the tracks.

    I think the clincher was your perspective after the brouhaha between Lars Larson and Atkinson. Earlier in this thread, you dismissed Atkinson as “unhinged” because he sounded “like he was going to cry.” Yet, when Larson went after Mannix for a comment that a campaign consultant made, you rightly called it “bullcrap” and a “show job.” (As a side note, I’d say that calling the Democrat-Herald “liberal” is a bit of a stretch -- Hasso Hering is certainly not Lars Larson, but neither is the D-H a typical liberal Northwest paper.)

    So why is it that when Larson turns on Mannix, it’s crap, but when Larson turns on Atkinson, it supposedly reveals Atkinson for a whiner? I heard both interviews, and I thought Larson an idiot in both cases (but then, that's becoming a frequent feeling). I have already stated that Atkinson didn’t handle that as well as he could have, but he was not angry, insolent or hyperemotional -- unless you’re looking for a reason to support an opponent and such labels are a convenient way to move on.

    Will Atkinson’s lack of statewide prominence hurt him with some voters? Probably. But Saxton will turn off conservatives, and Mannix will turn off people who think he’s past his prime. They all have liabilities -- the question is whose liabilities are insurmountable? We can disagree about the answer to that question, as long as we’re willing to be up front about our motivations.

    That's my two cents. OK, maybe four or five...

     
  • At 2/12/2006 11:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Well, I e-mailed Victoria and she said the bs about her and Jason is just that--BS. So retract. And quit huffing the formaldeyde

     

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