Bill Sizemore is a liability

If there's any question about whether Bill Sizemore has a continuing and effective role in the Oregon initiative process, that question should be put to rest by the kerfuffle between the Oregon Education Association and the folks supporting Measure 65 on the November ballot.

According to the Oregonian's Steve Duin, the OEA sent a mailer to its members urging them to vote against eight ballot measures (including Measure 65) on the ballot because they're sponsored by "Bad Penny Bill." Never mind that Sizemore is only the chief sponsor of five measures (58, 59, 60, 63 and 64).

Measure 65 is the Open Primaries bill sponsored by former Oregon secretaries of state Phil Keisling and Norma Paulus, and when they found out that the OEA listed their measure as a Sizemore creation, they went into damage control overdrive.

"Linking us to Sizemore is blatantly false, cynical and offensive," Keisling said. "I can't believe OEA's political bosses are so afraid of losing power that they would knowingly lie and mislead their own members."

He added, "Don't tell me this isn't intentional and designed to denigrate. It's as intentional a deception as anything I've seen in 20 years."

Those comments from Keisling should tell you everything you need to know about Sizemore and his ability to effect change in the state's political process. From the position of the M65 supporters, Sizemore's name is such poison in Oregon politics that they had to nip this in the bud. Immediately.

And we know the position of the OEA -- there's not an ad that comes out from them that doesn't show an unhappy, shady Bill Sizemore and trumpet his name as the malevolent force causing the OEA to spend millions more of its member dues to fight off this assault. If you don't think the OEA has polling data showing that evoking Sizemore's name causes an immediate and significant drop in favorability, think again.

Yes, Sizemore has had a few victories, and he's forced the legislature to deal with issues it would rather have ignored. But really, has the legislature's attempt at appeasement in, say, the Measure 37 re-write resulted in anything positive for center-right Oregonians?

And his attempts at targeting the union crowd have backfired. Badly. Yes, he's forced the unions to spend tens of millions of their dollars to defeat him, but big whoop. That's like taking a cookie from a toddler, but leaving the full cookie jar open nearby -- there's plenty more where that came from. He's also been credited with bringing out enough union voters to elect Bill Bradbury for secretary of state. And we see how well that's worked out, especially in the redistricting process.

When we see how badly Keisling and Paulus want to distance themselves from Bill Sizemore, it's clear that Sizemore is a liability to his own causes. At just 57 years old, Sizemore still has many more productive years ahead of him. They should be in something other than politics.

This will accomplish...what?

While I was away for Spring Break, I see the junior senator from the state of Oregon completely imploded. Gordon Smith voted in favor of a troop pullout within four months, distinguishing himself as the only Senate Republican willing to tell al-Queda how long it had to wait before it could start a full-scale slaughter of Iraqi civilians.

With that vote, Sen. Smith lost my support in 2008. I won't vote for his Democratic opponent (whomever it may be), but I won't support Smith, either.

However, the Northwest Republican rumor mill reported that Bill Sizemore may be considering a primary election challenge against Sen. Smith next Spring.

You remember Sizemore, don't you? In the 1998 governor's election, he won exactly one county against Incumbent John Kitzhaber, and that was tiny Malheur County, where he beat Kitzhaber by 363 votes. Overall, Kitzhaber beat Sizemore by 383,000 votes out of 1.1 million total votes cast, or more than 34 percentage points.

The author of a plethora of tax- and union-related ballot measures, Sizemore has been the favorite whipping boy for the unions. That included a multi-million-dollar racketeering judgment against him that took almost seven years for him to clear his name in the courts.

Sizemore is, in some respects, the Oregon version of Newt Gingrich; good ideas that are obscured by personal foibles. (I'm not saying Sizemore has Gingrich's ability to communicate or to think of creative policy ideas, only that his efforts are blunted by his personal issues.)

Run Bill Sizemore against Gordon Smith, and what happens? Most likely, Smith will clean the floor with him, because Republicans may agree with Sizemore's priorities, but I don't think they're willing to vote for someone with his history. It will mark Sizemore's second effort to "send a message" through personal candidacy, and will mark his second devastating defeat.

The only possible impact on Gordon Smith will be that he has to spend some of his campaign money to ward off a primary challenger (though I don't see that being a lot); and he has to defend his Senate votes earlier in the campaign season, thus exposing his inconsistencies to a press and a Democratic Party that are both eager to trumpet those issues.

Although doubtful, there is another possible outcome stemming from a Sizemore-Smith matchup: perhaps Republican resentment against Smith is broader than I imagine, and Sizemore squeaks past Smith in the primary. What happens then? Sizemore gets pasted by the Democratic machine even worse than in 1998, and becomes even more of a laughing stock.

It will also be a knock-down blow for Oregon's Republican Party, which will once again demonstrate its lack of effective candidates and organization and will cause independents to lose faith in the party's legitimacy.

Gordon Smith, for all his maverick status, is still a more reliable conservative vote than any Democrat (including Joe Lieberman) will ever be, and in many respects I hope he wins reelection in '08. But regardless, a Bill Sizemore candidacy would be a disaster -- for him, for his priorities, and for his party.