How will Kevin Mannix's campaign go?

If you have any doubt about it, just read this story in The Oregonian:

Kevin Mannix, who a recent poll showed is the early front-runner in the Republican governor's primary, is struggling to pay $460,000 in debts left over from his 2002 race for the same office.

Although Mannix had talked earlier of erasing the debt this year, a new disclosure report shows that he so far repaid a fraction of the loans he took out during the past campaign.

His continuing debt load has given his political opponents campaign ammunition and raised questions about how it will affect his ability to stockpile money -- both for the primary next May and, if he wins, for the general election in November.

Knowing that Mannix is the front runner, the press will do its best to push this story. It will not go away, no matter how many times a campaign consultant says "Mannix owes only a small group of supporters who are willing to delay repayment to ensure that he can run a strong race," as the story claims.

After three failed attempts at statewide office, Mannix is damaged goods, boys and girls (no matter what someone like Jack Roberts says). Ron Saxton flat-out admits he'll make the debt an issue in the campaign; Mannix's debt "says a lot about his character," Saxton said.

If you want to know about character, read the next paragraph: Jason Atkinson — "the other candidate in the race" — pledged to avoid debt in the campaign, but declined to criticize a fellow Republican. I'm starting to like this guy.

Also, read this:

Oregon Democratic Chairman Jim Edmunson said Democrats are also ready to make Mannix's campaign finances an issue if Mannix wins the primary. "Borrow and spend seems to be the Republican style these days," Edmunson said.

Mannix supporters said they don't think the debt will gain traction with voters.

"This isn't about who can raise the most money," said former Labor Commissioner Jack Roberts. "It's about who would be the best governor."

Roberts, who ran against Mannix in 2002 but now supports him, said voters weren't bothered that Republican Gordon Smith had a big debt from a previous campaign when he ran and won a U.S. Senate seat in 1996.

The difference, Jack, is that Gordon Smith wasn't trying for the fourth time to win a statewide office. Mannix might make a heckuva governor, but he has to win two elections to do so. The debt baggage will not only hurt him, it will take the attention away from other candidates (e.g. Atkinson) who are trying to get their names before voters by running a positive campaign. Who will get more press and media advertising — the candidate with negative baggage, or the candidate trying to discuss the issues facing Oregon? Here's a hint:which one is the subject of this Oregonian story?

Regardless, it's clear Saxton and the Democrats plan to milk the debt issue for all its worth. This isn't going away. Mannix should back out of the race now, but I get the feeling his ego won't let him.